Abstract
Abstract. To study high-impact tropical cyclones (TCs) is of crucial importance due to their extraordinary destructive potential that leads to major losses in many coastal areas in the western North Pacific (WNP). Nevertheless, because of the rarity of high-impact TCs, it is difficult to construct a robust hazard assessment based on the historical best track records. This paper aims to address this issue by introducing a computationally simple and efficient approach to build a physically consistent high-impact TC event set with non-realised TC events in the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) archive. This event set contains more than 10 000 years of TC events. The temporal and spatial characteristics of the new event set are consistent with the historical TC climatology in the WNP. It is shown that this TC event set contains ∼100 and ∼77 times more very severe typhoons and violent typhoons than the historical records, respectively. Furthermore, this approach can be used to improve the return-period estimation of TC-associated extreme wind. Consequently, a robust extreme TC hazard assessment, reflective of the current long-term climate variability phase, can be achieved using this approach.
Highlights
The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme meteorological events in recent decades (IPCC, 2012) and the increasing human population and assets located in riskprone regions (Desai et al, 2015) lead to an increase in risk to humans and economic loss potentials from natural hazards, e.g. tropical cyclones, with potentially disastrous consequences
We present validation of our TIGGE PEPS (TPEPS) tropical cyclones (TCs) event set by comparing the climatological features as provided by a time- and ensemble-aggregated view of the TPEPS TC event set to the historical- and/or reanalysis-based event set
Since windstorm tracking algorithm (WiTRACK) is a wind-threshold-exceedance-based detection scheme and the 98th percentile wind speed value of JRA-55 within the tropical western North Pacific (WNP) is similar to these selected THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) data (Fig. 1), this implies JRA-55 underestimates the wind speed of wind field of TCs, which is in agreement with Murakami (2014)
Summary
The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme meteorological events in recent decades (IPCC, 2012) and the increasing human population and assets located in riskprone regions (Desai et al, 2015) lead to an increase in risk to humans and economic loss potentials from natural hazards, e.g. tropical cyclones, with potentially disastrous consequences. While natural hazards have an impact on all society stakeholders, governments are crucial in disaster risk reduction (DRR) because of their ability to implement necessary DRR-related policy and to allocate resources to appropriate parties (Shi, 2012). Using cost-benefit analysis for a case study of typhoon disasters in China, Ye et al (2016) showed insurance premium subsidies have the highest benefit-cost ratio. This is because premium subsidies increase the penetration rate of an insurance programme, i.e. more protection is offered by the private sector and the risk is transferred to the private sector (Glauber, 2004). The development and application of effective financial instruments for risk transfer is important
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