Abstract
This study presents a new storm surge hazard potential index (SSHPI) for estimating tropical cyclone (TC) induced peak surge levels at a coast. The SSHPI incorporates parameters that are often readily available at real-time: intensity in 10-min maximum wind speed, radius of 50-kt wind, translation speed, coastal geometry, and bathymetry information. The inclusion of translation speed and coastal geometry information lead to improvements of the SSHPI to other existing surge indices. A retrospective analysis of SSHPI using data from 1978–2019 in Japan suggests that this index captures historical events reasonably well. In particular, it explains ~ 66% of the observed variance and ~ 74% for those induced by TCs whose landfall intensity was larger than 79-kt. The performance of SSHPI is not sensitive to the type of coastal geometry (open coasts or semi-enclosed bays). Such a prediction methodology can decrease numerical computation requirements, improve public awareness of surge hazards, and may also be useful for communicating surge risk.
Highlights
We demonstrated the development of a new storm surge hazard potential index (SSHPI) for quantifying/ categorizing tropical cyclone (TC) induced surge events in Japan
A fundamental difference between the SSHPI and existing indices is that it considers coastal geometry and storm forward motion speed in surge estimates
Using reduced-versions of SSHPI, we found that while surge estimation derived from using only intensity and storm size information provides less information on the overall surge hazard than does full form of SSHPI
Summary
This study presents a new storm surge hazard potential index (SSHPI) for estimating tropical cyclone (TC) induced peak surge levels at a coast. Using 42 years of tidal records and landfall TC best tracks in Japan, Islam and T akagi[25], showed that fast-moving TCs tended to amplify the storm surge along open coastlines but reduced the surge at semi-enclosed bays (vice-versa).
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