A new transfer function model for the estimation of non-point-source solute travel times

Abstract

The scope of this work is to present a new fast and reliable transfer function model, which simulates the spatio-temporal distribution of non-point-source solutes along the unsaturated zone, suitable to be used at large scales within a web-based Decision Support System. With the assumptions of a) a gravity induced water flow, b) a non-reactive solute and c) a purely convective flow, the model uses the transfer functions, i.e., the travel time (TT) probability density functions, derived from the unsaturated hydraulic conductivity curve k(θ). The output concentration of a solute is simply the convolution of the transfer functions with the input concentrations to the system. A model sensitivity analysis, based on Monte Carlo simulations, was carried out, showing that saturated water content and the tortuosity parameter τ were the parameters that affected the mean TT more. The model was validated against concentration experiments carried out on four large soil columns. Results were really good for all soils, with the best agreement with R2 = 0.97, RMSE = 0.11 and ME = −0.01. Moreover, the outputs obtained applying the model to 46 soil profiles sampled in the Valle Telesina, in Southern Italy, completely characterised from the hydrological point of view, were compared with those obtained from the Richard-based model Hydrus 1D. The result of the comparisons gave a very high correlation coefficient (above 0.8), a mean absolute error between the two models of around 40 days and a percent bias of −16%. Finally, the application of transfer function model to a large spatial extent is presented, to show its possible use for the groundwater vulnerability assessment.