A new trajectory analysis method for migratory planthoppers, Sogatella furcifera (Horváth) (Homoptera: Delphacidae) and Nilaparvata lugens (Stål), using an advanced weather forecast model

Abstract

Abstract 1 A new method of backward trajectory analysis for planthopper migration is presented. The method consists of two components: an advanced weather forecast model, MM5, for weather simulation, and a migration model for trajectory calculation. The weather forecast model simulates wind fields in which trajectories are calculated by the migration model.2 It is assumed that planthoppers, Sogatella furcifera and Nilaparvata lugens, are transported at wind speeds and in wind directions. The method is evaluated using a migration event observed at Chikugo in Japan on 25 June 1969, which was recorded in hourly catch data.3 The results indicate that the takeoff responsible for the migration occurred at 21 UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) on 23 June along the coastal region of Fujian province in China. This is the first time that the source region of this event has been accurately identified. Determinations of the migrating duration and height are also consistent with observations.4 Although the landing process is not considered in the model, it is shown that the method is able to simulate the migration and accurately estimate various parameters. This study also shows the importance of high‐quality weather simulation.