Abstract
ABSTRACT Intelligence is judged by its ability to avoid surprises. Unfolding the dry logic of uncertainty shows how intelligence failures caused by surprises are unavoidable. This is done by the systematic study of the general conditions that trigger the different kinds of surprise, categorized according to their different epistemological nature. Five conceptual categories of surprise are analyzed: lack of expectations; insufficient evidence between two or more alternative courses of action; false justified beliefs; incomplete theory to ground a belief, and an utterly false expectation produced by our (usually reliable) mindset. Intelligence serves as a countermeasure to opponents’ actions at strategic and tactical levels. However, intelligence analysis can only minimize the risk; it cannot eliminate it altogether.
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