A new test for optimum currency area with an application to the Central and Eastern European countries

Abstract

ABSTRACT This research introduces a new test for optimum currency area that is based on synchronization of monetary policy recommendations. The main advantage over the more traditional synchronization of business cycles is that it takes into account two known determinants of monetary policy: inflation and the output gap. As an application, the test is applied to the EU economies with a particular focus on the Central and Eastern European Countries. Some of these countries have recently joined the euro area, some are the members of ERM II, and the rest are debating whether to fulfill the convergence criteria of adopting the euro. The main findings are that within the last few years the current non-euro area members (with the exception of Bulgaria and Romania) fit the euro area as well as the core euro area countries.