A new technique for using multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) in pavement roughness prediction

Abstract

The paper presents the application of a new statistical technique, multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), to a flexible pavement roughness prediction model. MARS is a non-parametric function estimation technique that shows great promise for fitting non-linear multivariate functions. The MARS approach was used to develop a roughness equation, based on available input, and was able to identify the threshold values of each input and the most important variables contributing to the roughness equation. The MARS technique allows easy interpretation of the relative importance of pavement condition variables, environmental factors and traffic for the overall fit.