A New Surrogate Safety Measure Considering Temporal–Spatial Proximity and Severity of Potential Collisions

Abstract

Accurate identification and analysis of traffic conflicts through surrogate safety measures (SSMs) are crucial for safety evaluation in road systems. Existing SSMs for conflict identification and analysis mostly consider the temporal–spatial proximity of conflicts without taking into account the severity of potential collisions. This makes SSMs unsuitable for traffic safety evaluation in complex road environments. In order to address the shortcomings above, this study first introduces a new SSM called the Potential Conflict Risk Index (PCRI). To validate the effectiveness of PCRI, the inD dataset is adopted for conflict identification comparison between time-to-collision (TTC) and PCRI. Using PCRI, this study conducts a conflict analysis in the freeway merging areas based on the data from the Outer Ring Expressway Dataset (ORED), accounting for differences between cars and trucks. The comparative results between TTC and PCRI show that PCRI can provide a more comprehensive identification of conflicts and a more accurate identification of the moment with the highest conflict risk. The results of conflict analysis suggest that conflicts occur more frequently in situations involving trucks, and these conflicts commonly occur in closer proximity to the on-ramp at freeway merging areas. The findings from this study can improve the accuracy of conflict identification under different conflict patterns, enhancing the specificity of traffic safety measures and ultimately ensuring the safety of road systems.