A new statistical method to assess potential debris flow erosion

Abstract

Debris-flow erosion patterns were investigated for two adjacent catchments, Molinara and Val del Lago creeks (Eastern Alps, Trento Province, Italy), where two debris flows were triggered by an intense storm in the summer of 2010. Both basins have been inactive over the last two centuries. The debris flows were activated by channel and bank erosion under stable bed conditions before the event. The erosive process was analysed by combining a field campaign (two hundred cross sections were surveyed along the creeks) and pre- and post-event LiDAR surveys. Data were analysed by selecting morphologically-homogenous channel reaches and deriving for each reach: erosion depth, creek width, eroded volume and peak discharge. Investigating the frequency distribution of the erosion depth we found out that it follows an EV1 probability distribution. On this basis, a new approach has been proposed to predict event volumes when the expected maximum potential depth erosion is known. The procedure would be of high interest in predicting debris flow volume in mountain channels characterized by long silent periods.