Abstract

In this paper, a new probability discrete distribution for analyzing over-dispersed count data encountered in biological sciences was proposed. The new discrete distribution, with one parameter, has a log-concave probability mass function and an increasing hazard rate function, for all choices of its parameter. Several properties of the proposed distribution including the mode, moments and index of dispersion, mean residual life, mean past life, order statistics and L- moment statistics have been established. Two actuarial or risk measures were derived. The numerical computations for these measures are conducted for several parametric values of the model parameter. The parameter of the introduced distribution is estimated using eight frequentist estimation methods. Detailed Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to explore the performance of the studied estimators. The performance of the proposed distribution has been examined by three over-dispersed real data sets from biological sciences.

Highlights

  • The discrete probability distributions have their great importance in modeling real count data in many applied sciences such as public health, medicine, agriculture, epidemiology, and sociology, among others

  • We briefly study several estimators called, maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), maximum product of spacings estimator (MPSE), least-squares estimator (LSE), percentile estimator (PCE), Anderson-Darling estimator (ADE), Cramer-von-Mises estimator (CVME), weighted least-squares estimator (WLSE), and right-tail Anderson-Darling estimator (RADE)

  • We propose and study a new discrete distribution which has a log-concave probability mass function and an increasing discrete hazard rate function, for all choices of its parameter

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Summary

Introduction

The discrete probability distributions have their great importance in modeling real count data in many applied sciences such as public health, medicine, agriculture, epidemiology, and sociology, among others. Several discrete distributions have been introduced for modeling count data. Some traditional discrete models such as Poisson geometric distributions have limited applications in reliability, failure times, and counts. This is so, because some real count data show either under-dispersion or over-dispersion. This has motivated several statisticians to explore new discrete models based on classical continuous distributions for modeling discrete failure times and reliability data. There is still a clear need to construct more flexible discrete distributions to serve several applied areas such as social sciences, economics, and reliability studies to properly suit different types of count data. Al-Babtain et al (2020) proposed the natural discrete Lindley distribution. Eliwa et al (2020a, 2020c) proposed

A New Discrete Distribution for Modeling Over-Dispersed Data
The OPD Distribution
Moments and Index of Dispersion
Mean Residual Life and Mean Past Life
Order Statistics and L-moment Statistics
Actuarial Measures
TVaR Measure
Simulations of VaR and TVaR
Maximum Likelihood Estimator
Least Square Estimator
Cramer-von Mises Estimator
Maximum Product of Spacings Estimator
Anderson-Darling and Right-Tail Anderson-Darling Estimators
Simulation Results
Applications to Biological Real Data
Conclusions
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