Abstract
The ship collision accident (SCA) risk for any ship approaching any other change from the causation probability (CP) to the geometric probability (GP) in regime. Because ship operators may not be aware of the environmental factors (EFs) related potential risks in high CP during the initial stage of the GP analysis process, it is likely that higher-grade SCA measures will not be taken. However, if any EF-related CP is told to ship operators, they can take more effective and intentional measures in time; moreover, if the CP corresponding to navigation-related EFs is no less than the risk early warning critical value (REWCV) calculated based on historical SCA data, SCAs will be in a high-risk level. A new method was put forward here based on a quantitative analysis of EFs and previous SCA statistics to provide early warning of any SCA risk. On this basis, a REWCV is obtained based on quantified EFs by means of such method which is relatively simple but high operational and practical. A case study of Three Gorges Reservoir in China indicates that the range of EF values whose probability of a SCA grows rapidly is consistent with environmental limits defined by Chinese maritime standards. Moreover, the modified critical value of the EF-related CP shall be further refined to act as the REWCV for CAs. In addition, the relationship (REWCV vs. the number of previous SCAs) was clarified.
Highlights
Risk is an uncertain event or condition that affects at least one objective if it occurs
An early warning system can be developed for ships tending to collision if related to environmental factors (EFs) may be quantified based on previous ship collision accident (SCA) data; that is to say, the safety situation and may be correspondingly estimated if the risk early warning critical value (REWCV) for EFs may be determined based on previous SCAs (Chen, 2014)
Studying the causation probability (CP) of SCAs is a highly complicated task which is akin to using a “black box” in many cases
Summary
Risk is an uncertain event or condition that affects at least one objective if it occurs. It is generally thought that environmental factors are within the zone ([-1,1]) due to their objectiveness and statistical analysis of multiple accident samples may ensure they shall approach an zone or threshold. If there are big data characteristics for accident samples, the human factors with positive and negative operations shall be counterbalanced mutually or tend to a certain stable value or conform to a certain distribution in case of large samples. An early warning system can be developed for ships tending to collision if related to EFs may be quantified based on previous SCA data; that is to say, the safety situation and may be correspondingly estimated if the risk early warning critical value (REWCV) for EFs may be determined based on previous SCAs (Chen, 2014)
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