Abstract
Taking into account the fact of global economic integration, this paper improves the RICE model and the MRICES model, and establishes a new integrated assessment model MRICES-2012, which takes Ramsey utility as the standard of fairness. Based on the model, schemes which meet the global emission mitigation targets as well as the interests of developing countries are simulated to assess the international fairness of emission reduction. Therefore, a new feasible scheme is proposed, which can not only reach the Copenhagen Consensus but also ensure interests of every country. Specifically speaking, the US and Japan cut emissions 80% and 70% respectively by 2050 relative to the 1990 level; the EU and other developed countries cut 80% by 2050 relative to 1990 level; high human development countries cut 50% by 2050 relative to 1990 level; all above-mentioned countries start emission reduction from 2020 and keep emission on 2050 level by 2100; China begins emission reduction from 2030 and cuts emission 15% by 2050 and 25% by 2100 relative to 2005 level; medium human development countries keep emission on 2020 level by 2100; low human development countries do not take part in reduction on emission intensity and global emission.
Highlights
Taking into account the fact of global economic integration, this paper improves the RICE model and the MRICES model, and establishes a new integrated assessment model MRICES-2012, which takes Ramsey utility as the standard of fairness
Since the RICE model [8] does not consider GDP spillovers and technology spillovers resulting from the global economic integration and endogenous technological change, the energy consumption reduction and emission reduction induced by economic development are neglected
This paper establishes an integrated assessment model for climate change based on RICE model, and introduces the global GDP spillovers and technological change into the model
Summary
Following the RICE-MRICES architecture, the model is divided into macro-economic module, climate response module, human-environment coordination module and multiregional GDP spillover module. GDP spillovers and learning-by-doing technological change, named MRICES-2012. In MRICES-2012, countries are linked with each other by GDP spillover and carbon emissions, based on each national macro-dynamic economic model. In accordance with the RICE model, economic activities (measured in total output) and global warming (measured in surface temperature) are associated with each other in MRICES-2012. I,t, different from RICE, is regional specified and endogenous learning-by-doing technological change is introduced into MRICES [10], which can reflect regional emission more accurately. MRICES-2012 gets the total output of various countries (regions) in the case of global economic cooperation with GDP spillovers, figures out emission based on emission intensity and output. A detailed model on technological the total amount of GDP, and considers the per capita welfare, which makes it an indication of comprehensive national power.
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