A New Quantitative Evaluation Index System for Disaster-Causing Factors of Mud Inrush Disasters in Water-Rich Fault Fracture Zone

Abstract

The Yonglian tunnel in China has experienced 15 instances of severe water and mud inrush disasters, resulting in a total volume of 53,000 m3 of gushing water and mud. These disasters have caused irreversible environmental damage, including hilltop collapse and soil erosion. To achieve early warning and early management of such disasters, the paper introduced the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method into the Analytic Hierarchy Process to establish a new quantitative evaluation index system for the causal factors. As the evaluation method involves expert participation in scoring, it inherently presents certain subjective elements. To further substantiate the validity of our approach, we conducted a series of model tests. Then, the accuracy of the quantitative evaluation indexes was verified through these model tests, indicating that the quantitative evaluation system has important guiding significance for safe tunnel construction, allowing for early warning and management of potential disasters.