Abstract
The seepage mechanism of multifractured horizontal wells is complex in tight reservoirs, which make that the production is very difficult to forecast. This article put forward a new way called the developed clustering analysis to forecast well production which is based on the practical production data of 10 multifractured horizontal wells. This method first uses the information analysis method to obtain the weight of the influencing factors of horizontal well production and normalizes the influencing factors of production. Second, the feature matrix is constructed by combining the weight of each factor, and the distance between the feature matrix of different production wells and the optimal feature matrix is calculated. Finally, the relationship curve between distance and production is plotted, and the production chart of the block is obtained. Taking 9 multifractured horizontal wells in the tight reservoir as an example, the production prediction chart of the block is calculated. At the same time, the production data of the 10th well are used to verify the production chart of the block. The results show that the horizontal well production has a high fitting relationship with the distance. The error between the new well production predicted by the chart and the actual production is 4.7%, which meets the requirements of the field error. The model was also used in a reservoir with 154 wells and also verified the accuracy of the model. The prediction method proposed in this paper can accurately predict the production of volume fractured horizontal wells in the experimental area and provide certain guiding significance for the development and adjustment of tight reservoirs.
Highlights
With the successful exploitation of tight oil reservoirs such as Bakken shales in the United States, the development of tight oil reservoirs in China has gradually embarked on the right track on the basis of drawing on its mining experience [1, 2]
Many scholars have done a lot of research on the seepage theory of fractured oil and gas reservoirs, and the seepage mode is from Darcy seepage to non-Darcy seepage
The Warren-Root dual-medium model cannot consider the unsteady flow of fractured reservoirs
Summary
With the successful exploitation of tight oil reservoirs such as Bakken shales in the United States, the development of tight oil reservoirs in China has gradually embarked on the right track on the basis of drawing on its mining experience [1, 2]. Well test analysis method based on elliptical seepage theory can effectively analyze the fluid flow characteristics of fractured reservoirs, but the interfracture interference cannot be considered. Ei-Banbi and Wattenbarger [17] considered that linear flow was dominant in tight oil and gas reservoirs, so a multilinear seepage equation was established for well test analysis of tight oil and gas reservoirs This method is suitable for dynamic analysis of production and pressure of horizontal wells in tight reservoirs after large-scale fracturing. Some scholars proposed the application of cluster analysis to predict production of tight oil wells to avoid the complexity of the seepage mechanism in tight oil reservoirs [25] This method can only classify wells based on existing data of production wells and obtain the prediction range, which cannot accurately predict single well. It is simple to use and the prediction error is within a reasonable range
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