A new post-Kyoto climate regime based on per-capita cumulative CO2-emission rights—rationale, architecture and quantitative assessment of the implication for the CO2-emissions from China, India and the Annex-I countries by 2050

ABSTRACTThe per capita CO2 emissions (PCCE) of many developing countries like China have been rising faster than total CO2 emissions, and display spatial divergence. Such temporal growth and spatial divergence will have a significant influence on efforts to mitigate CO2 emissions. Given the research gap on the impact of the structural transition in population on PCCE, we constructed an econometric model using the dynamic panel method. The results reveal that the population structural transition has a significant nonlinear impact on PCCE, as the rate of population growth in China decelerates. Both demographic ageing and urban-rural migration have a stronger impact on PCCE than other factors. This effect, however, decreases beyond a certain threshold. An increase in the number of households due to urbanization and family downsizing has resulted in a positive effect on PCCE, without a threshold turning point. The research also finds that an increased share of the service sector in employment can reduce PCCE only if the sector employs more than 31.56% of the total employed population. Overall, these findings indicate that policymakers should pay attention to the prominence of the demographic structural transition for effective climate policy.Key policy insightsPolicymakers should address rising per capita carbon emissions (PCCE) and their spatial divergence in future climate policies, not just total CO2 emissions.The transitioning demographics of ageing and urbanization in China show a nonlinear, inverted U-shaped effect on PCCE instead of a continuously positive effect.Based on the nonlinear effect of employment structure on PCCE, policymakers should focus on the relationship between the structural transition of the economy and PCCE in future climate mitigation policies.

This study analyzes the convergence of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by examining the stationarity of the relative per capita CO2 emissions of 18 selected countries on the Silk Road for the period 1990-2020. To examine the stationarity of relative per capita CO2 emissions for those 18 countries, we applied a large battery the newly proposed nonlinear panel unit root tests that allow for several forms of state-dependent and time-dependent nonlinearities. We also applied conventional linear panel unit root tests. The linear and nonlinear panel unit root tests account for cross-country dependencies, and the SPSM procedure is applied to these tests in order to see how many countries in the panel sample are converging to the steady state. The test results of linear and nonlinear panel unit root test reveal that the relative per-capita CO2 emissions of 10 out of 18 countries are stationary meaning that the CO2 emissions of these 10 countries converge to the steady-state level over time. Especially, size and sign nonlinearities better capture the convergence dynamics of per capita CO2 emissions towards the steady-state level for seven countries.As we have foundthat 56% of countries' per capita CO2 emissions are converging, this result has important policy implications.

This study examines how economic complexity, along with human capital, total factor productivity, foreign direct investment, and trade openness, leads to per capita CO2 emissions (PCO2Es) convergence at club level in the case of 42 countries for the period of 1998-2019. To do so, first, this study implements the Phillips and Sul novel club convergence approach, and results show the existence of three clubs implying the distinct transition paths. Secondly, to examine how the economic complexity affects the PCO2Es in each club, this study applies a panel data model. This study finds the divergence in PCCO2Es when all 42 countries are considered together. However, there is existence of three clubs that are converging to their steady states due to economic complexity along with control variables. Further, the impact of economic complexity on PCO2Es is found to be different for the three clubs. For instance, a positive and significant relationship has been noted for clubs 1 and 2 (high and moderate PCO2Es). This implies that economic shifts in these countries degrade the environment. While in the case of club 3, we find a negative and significant relationship suggesting an improvement in the environmental quality. From the policy point of view, it can be suggested that environmental policies should be designed at the club level by targeting economic complexity. Further, club 1 and club 2 may improve the environmental quality by adopting some of the successful environmental policies from club 3 countries.

Poland is a participant to the European Union Emissions Trading System, which aims at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Trading CO2 emission rights has become a strategic area from the point of view of managing entities that emit CO2. The aim of the paper is to investigate and identify discrepancies in the presentation and valuation of CO2 emission allowances, CO2 emission provision liabilities in reporting, and to assess the impact of these discrepancies on compliance with the true and fair view principle on top of the informative value of the financial statements. An in-depth qualitative analysis was used to examine disclosures of CO2 emission rights in the 2020 consolidated financial statements coming from the largest energy sector groups listed in the WIG Energy Index of the Warsaw Stock Exchange in light of the relevant legal acts and literature. As a result of the research conducted, it was confirmed that groups of companies carry out a range of CO2 emission rights balance classification and valuation. There were also significant discrepancies in the disclosure of information about the creation and valuation of provisions for liabilities due to CO2 emissions. The discrepancies observed in the audited entities’ balance-sheet presentations and valuation of the acquired CO2 emission allowances and reserves resulting from IAS/IFRS in practice distorts the comparability of data presented in the financial statements. The research also revealed differences in scope of disclosed information, as well as its fragmentary nature. As a result, the comparison of data between groups in the energy sector in terms of their assets is impossible. Our study fills a research gap on the effects of using IFRS for the presentation and valuation of CO2 emission rights in the Polish energy sector and the impact of a differentiated approach to disclosures on the true and fair view conception in financial reporting.

The accurate estimation of the impact of urban form on CO2 emissions is essential for the proposal of effective low-carbon spatial planning strategies. However, few studies have focused on the relationship between urban form and CO2 emissions in small and medium-sized cities, and it is especially unclear whether the relationship varies across cities with different socioeconomic characteristics. This study took 132 small and medium-sized cities in the Yangtze River Delta in China to explore how urban form affects CO2 emissions, considering the socioeconomic factors of industrial structure, population density, and economic development level. First, nighttime light data (DMSP-OLS and NPP-VIIRS) and provincial energy data were used to calculate CO2 emissions. Second, four landscape metrics were used to quantify the compactness and complexity of the urban form based on Chinese urban land-use data. Finally, panel data models were established to analyze whether and how different socioeconomic factors impacted the relationship between urban form and CO2 emissions. The results showed that the three socioeconomic factors mentioned above all had obvious influences on the relationship between urban form and per capita CO2 emissions in small and medium-sized cities. The effect of compactness on per-capita CO2 emissions increased with a rise in the proportion of the tertiary industry, population density, and per-capita GDP. However, compactness shows no effects on per-capita CO2 emissions in industrial cities and low-development-level cities. The effect of complexity on per-capita CO2 emissions only increased with the rise in population density. The results may support decision-makers in small and medium-sized cities to propose accurate, comprehensive, and differentiated plans for CO2 emission control and reduction.

This paper investigates carbon dioxide (CO2) emission and its determinants in 286 Chinese cities. The findings strongly support an inverted U-shaped relationship between per capita CO2 emission (PCE) and urban development. However, the realization of this relationship depends on stringent governmental policy interventions. The regression analysis in this paper shows that city size is positively correlated with CO2 emission efficiency, but negatively correlated with PCE. This result suggests that population restrictions in large cities tend to increase CO2 emission. It is also shown that regional development programs are likely to encourage economic activities in regions with low CO2 emission efficiency and may have significant environmental consequences in the future.

Untangling the effects of the Belt and Road Initiative on carbon dioxide emissions

In the wake of the USA's refusal to ratify the Kyoto agreement on curbing greenhouse gas emissions, this article pledges for a national energy policy beyond Kyoto, based on local external effects stemming from the combustion of fossil fuels. Due to varying external effects a national policy will differentiate energy taxes between fuels. Using Swiss estimates of external effects, it is shown that a national policy would fulfill the Kyoto goal as a secondary benefit. Moreover, a nationally based fossil fuel policy would affect the scope for an international trade of CO2 emission rights, as a net-buyer of emission rights will lose from participating in such a trade.

In the wake of the USA's refusal to ratify the Kyoto agreement on curbing greenhouse gas emissions, this article pledges for a national energy policy beyond Kyoto, based on local external effects stemming from the combustion of fossil fuels. Due to varying external effects a national policy will differentiate energy taxes between fuels. Using Swiss estimates of external effects, it is shown that a national policy would fulfil the Kyoto goal as a secondary benefit. Moreover, a nationally based fossil fuel policy would affect the scope for an international trade of CO2 emission rights, as a net-buyer of emission rights will lose from participating in such a trade.

Abstract. Most atmospheric scientists agree that greenhouse gas emissions have already caused significant changes to the global climate system and that these changes will accelerate in the near future. At the same time, atmospheric scientists who – like other scientists – rely on international collaboration and information exchange travel a lot and, thereby, cause substantial emissions of CO2. In this paper, the CO2 emissions of the employees working at an atmospheric research institute (the Norwegian Institute for Air Research, NILU) caused by all types of business travel (conference visits, workshops, field campaigns, instrument maintainance, etc.) were calculated for the years 2005–2007. It is estimated that more than 90% of the emissions were caused by air travel, 3% by ground travel and 5% by hotel usage. The travel-related annual emissions were between 1.9 and 2.4 t CO2 per employee or between 3.9 and 5.5 t CO2 per scientist. For comparison, the total annual per capita CO2 emissions are 4.5 t worldwide, 1.2 t for India, 3.8 t for China, 5.9 t for Sweden and 19.1 t for Norway. The travel-related CO2 emissions of a NILU scientist, occurring in 24 days of a year on average, exceed the global average annual per capita emission. Norway's per-capita CO2 emissions are among the highest in the world, mostly because of the emissions from the oil industry. If the emissions per NILU scientist derived in this paper are taken as representative for the average Norwegian researcher, travel by Norwegian scientists would nevertheless account for a substantial 0.2% of Norway's total CO2 emissions. Since most of the travel-related emissions are due to air travel, water vapor emissions, ozone production and contrail formation further increase the relative importance of NILU's travel in terms of radiative forcing.

The goal of this study is to investigate the potential effects of international trade on per-capita CO2 emissions among trade partners. To achieve this purpose, the Group of Seven (G7) countries and each of their developing trade-partner countries with the highest trade volume have been selected as the sample. The stochastic convergence methodology has been employed using Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF), Phillips-Perron (PP), and Enders-Lee Fourier unit root tests in order to test for convergence or divergence. Various results have been obtained from the unit root tests. These results suggest international trade to have no general or common effects on per capita CO2 emissions.

Allocation of fossil CO2 emission rights quantifying cultural perspectives

The history of the Eastern Islands in the Pacific with an increasing over-utilization of natural resources reminds us of the mistakes modern societies are making and the question is obvious whether the Earth is suffering from an Eastern Islands Syndrome, in other words whether the egoism inherent in humans long-term might have fatal consequences for our species homo sapiens. Climate research identified two important phenomena, which should remind us of the Easter Islands: feedbacks and tipping points, i.e. self-accelerating phenomena of global warming and reaching irreversible points of climate change. Only a quick worldwide return to a low carbon economy is able to stabilize global warming on a bearable level. Both, Annex-I countries and Non-Annex-I countries have to contribute to reaching this goal taking their historical, current and future responsibilities into account. A post Kyoto regime based on cumulative per-capita CO2-emission rights and a international emission trading could provide for incentives to achieve a low carbon economy, especially for newly industrialized countries.

Strong links between the condition of the environment and the economy have recently resulted in a number of actions aiming to implement environmental considerations in economic calculations. This is accompanied by the development of the concept of ecosystem services, characterizing the benefits that the environment provides humankind with. The identification of these services is reflected in their economic values. Hence, the concept of the valuation of ecosystem services. Therefore, if the service provided by the environment takes on a financial value, we can consider it as income from the property containing the analyzed ecosystem. Of course, in order to speak in practice of the income approach in the valuation of such properties, there must be actual financial flow as income for the real estate owner. However, in the era of big economic changes and the implementation of a number of financial instruments (e.g., subsidies for a particular use of property, trade of CO2 emission rights), it seems reasonable to consider the possibility of property valuation by the valuation of ecosystem services. A part of this research focused on a service of forest ecosystems service that is carbon sequestration. The selection was made due to the implementation of the climate policy at the European level and its association with the trade of CO2 emission rights. The analyses were performed for two test sites characterized by different determinants (composition of species in the tree stand, age of the stand, degree of compactness of the tree stand, etc.). The low level of difficulty of the test methods used enables non-experts (persons with no qualifications in forestry) to carry out valuations themselves. The research is a contribution to the debate on the possibility of accounting for carbon sequestration in forest property valuation based on the income approach, but the issue still requires clarification of certain elements.

Assessment of grassland as biogas feedstock in terms of production costs and greenhouse gas emissions in exemplary federal states of Germany