Abstract
This paper presents a new model for calculating the reliability of large electric power networks with transmission constraints. Generation loss of load probability (LOLP) and expected unserved energy (EUE) are calculated with and without transmission constraints and displayed for the system and for each load area over a wide range of load levels. A two step process first finds the cumulative probabilistic the flow distributions from incremental flows resulting from random generator failures and then performs load shedding as a heuristic process to remove line overloads. Convolution of states allows an extremely large number of generator states to be modeled in a reasonable amount of computation time. Test results for a large network and for the IEEE Reliability Test System (RTS) are discussed in the paper.
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