A New Phase of Urban Development in Western Europe? The Evidence for the 1980s

Abstract

This is the first report of patterns of population change during the 1980s in the major urban regions of the European Union (of 12), using the results of the 1990 census round (or registration data where no census was taken). There is evidence of a substantial breakup of the previous regular pattern of decentralisation, which had been spreading from northern to southern European cities and from the largest to the medium-sized cities. During the 1980s there was a significant degree of recentralisation in many northern European cities, with nearly half of all core cities gaining population. The evidence presented here is consistent with arguments advanced in an earlier paper which suggested that such a change of patterns should be anticipated. There does not appear to be a complete reversal of previous patterns, however. Some urban regions continue to decentralise and decline; others are declining but experiencing relative recentralisation. The pattern is that there is now a greater variation in patterns. Cities which are experiencing the most relative recentralisation show that they are not a random group. They have characteristics consistent with the causal analysis which is presented. The plausibility of general, rather than particularistic explanations, is made greater by the very similar change of trends recently reported for US cities.