A new perspective on the twentieth-century American fertility swing.

Abstract

The trend in the American Birthrate of the twentieth century shows the following contrasts: 1) a steady decline during the 1st third; 2) the sharp increase of the baby boom peaking around 1957; and 3) the sharp fertility decline extending to the present. The pattern is the same for both the white and black populations of the country. The 2 most popular demographic theories used to explain fertility swings - the Demographic Transition and Household Economic theories - have the following common defects: 1) they explain cohort fertility in terms of early-established family size goals 2) they fail to recognize the importance of short-term or chance factors in influencing the fertility process and 3) they do not explain subgroup differentiations within the population. A new theory is proposed which postulates that events early in the fertility process affect the later course of the individual fertility behavior. It is hypothesized that the social and economic circumstances present in the life of individuals when they begin their reproductive period will influence the childbearing process. Such factors as the age at first intercourse penalties for premarital pregnancy and the convenience of contraceptive use are considered. The thesis is tested by the swings in general American fertility in the twentieth century and in a specific Philadelphia fertility study. It was found that early establishment of a contraceptive habit plus early reinforcement through lack of pregnancy were responsible for lower total fertility.