A New Perspective on the Natural Resource Curse

Abstract

Early papers found empirical support for a natural resource curse—the notion that exporting natural resources is detrimental to economic growth. Later papers, using reportedly improved econometric models and data, largely reversed these early findings by estimating that natural resources improve economic performance. However, this changing coefficient on natural resource dependence over time may not only be a function of model or data quality. Masked by this evolution in the economics literature is the possibility that the fundamental relationship between natural resources and economic performance has changed over the past several decades. This paper sheds a new perspective on the substantial resource curse literature by repeatedly estimating a single econometric model on data that evolve over time. The coefficient on natural resource dependence is estimated to steadily increases with the passage of time from a value that is negative and significant (for 1970, the basis for much of the early literature) to a positive and significant value a few decades later. Whatever natural resource estimated initially with data from 1970 seems to have evolved into a resource blessing over time.