A New Perspective for Urban Development Boundary Delineation Based on the MCR Model and CA-Markov Model

Siqi Yi,Yong Zhou,Qing Li

doi:10.3390/land11030401

Abstract

In order to control the development of urban space, it is important to explore scientific methods to provide a reference for regional territorial space planning. On the basis of the minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) model and the cellular automaton (CA)-Markov model, we constructed a new technical method for delineating urban development boundaries, exploring the temporal and spatial distribution characteristic of land use in Wuhan from 2010 to 2020 through nighttime and remote sensing images, and simulating the urban development boundaries of Wuhan from 2025 to 2035. The results show that: (1) the scales of Wuhan City’s built-up areas in 2010, 2015, and 2020 were 500 km2, 566.13 km2, and 885.11 km2, respectively, and the trends of expansion run to the east and southeast, and (2) on the basis of the MCR model, the urban development boundary scale of Wuhan City in 2025, 2030, and 2035 from the perspective of actual supply will be 903.52 km2, 937.48 km2, and 1021.44 km2, respectively, and based on the CA-Markov model, the urban development boundary scales of Wuhan City in 2025, 2030, and 2035 from the perspective of ideal land demand will be 912.75 km2, 946.40 km2, and 1041.91 km2, respectively. By combining the results of the two methods, we determined areas of 901.62 km2, 944.39 km2, and 1015.36 km2 as the urban development boundaries of Wuhan City in 2025, 2030, and 2035, respectively. According to the principle of supply–demand balance, the urban development boundary delineated by the integration of the MCR model and CA-Markov model, which is in line with the spatial expansion trend of growing cities, could optimize the urban development pattern; solve the contradiction between urban development, farmland protection, and ecological protection; and provide a methodological reference and decision-making basis for planning practice.

Highlights

Since the industrial revolution, global urban space has been continuously expanding.This is frequently occurring at a faster rate than population growth and is characterized by out-of-control land expansion and an imbalance in the human–land relationship and spatial development [1–3]
In order to solve the various problems associated with urban sprawl, the concept of urban land expansion control has been established with the aim of controlling expansion through planning and strict policies and laws
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Summary

Introduction

Global urban space has been continuously expanding. This is frequently occurring at a faster rate than population growth and is characterized by out-of-control land expansion and an imbalance in the human–land relationship and spatial development [1–3]. In London, from 1800 to 2000, the urban area expanded 63-fold, but the population only increased 10-fold, resulting in large-scale suburbanization. In order to solve the various problems associated with urban sprawl, the concept of urban land expansion control has been established with the aim of controlling expansion through planning and strict policies and laws. In the United States, many ideas have emerged around how to solve the problems caused by urban sprawl, such as “regionalism”, “urban growth management”, “new urbanism”, “urban growth management”, and “smart growth” [8–11]. With the deepening understanding of urban growth management, an increasing number of countries have begun to focus on policy measures to control the disorderly sprawl of cities

Methods

Results

Conclusion