A new permanent displacement model considering pulse-like ground motions and its application in landslide hazard assessment

Abstract

Permanent displacement predictive modeling can be used with geotechnical and seismological parameters to assess hazard assessment of earthquake-induced landslides (ELHA). Pulse-like ground motions (PLGMs) have a significant influence on landslide initiation, especially in near-fault areas. In this study, several permanent displacement predictive models were developed by analyzing PLGMs and horizontal-and-vertical combined shaking based on a modified permanent displacement model. Five hundred and fifty-five horizontal-and-vertical groups of near-fault PLGMs with distances less than 80 km from the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) database were selected and used as the excitation of the permanent displacement calculation model. A model utilizing peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV), and Arias intensity (Ia) parameters, was selected owing to its excellent performance in the comparative analysis of the correlation coefficient and standard deviation. The characteristics of near-fault PLGMs with azimuth and vertical component considered in the developed model can be applied to ELHA of the 1994 Northridge earthquake. The predictive capability of the presented model was evaluated from the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, with a value of 0.84. The results show that the model performs well in the ELHA in the near-fault areas and provides a basis for disaster prevention and mitigation.