A New Multi‐Method Assessment of Stratospheric Sulfur Load From the Okmok II Caldera‐Forming Eruption of 43 BCE

Abstract

AbstractThe 43 BCE eruption of Okmok Volcano has been proposed to have had a significant climate cooling impact in the Northern Hemisphere. In this study, we quantify the climate cooling potential of the Okmok II eruption by measuring sulfur concentration in melt inclusions (up to 1,606 ppm) and matrix glasses and estimate a total of 62 ± 16 Tg S released. The proportion reaching the stratosphere (2.5%–25%, i.e., 1.5–15.5 Tg S) was constrained by physical modeling of the caldera‐collapse eruption. Using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies E2.2 climate model we found a linear response between cooling and stratospheric sulfur load (0.05–0.08°C/Tg S). Thus, the 1–2°C of cooling derived from proxy records would require 16–32 Tg sulfur injection. This study underscores the importance of combining approaches to estimate stratospheric S load. For Okmok II, we find all methods are consistent with a range of 15–16 Tg S.