A new method of nowcasting wildfires and impacts: a case study for the USA

Abstract

<p>In recent years, there has been a steady increase in the intensity and frequency of wildfires worldwide mainly due to the escalating climate crisis and land-use change. Wildfires result in a decline in air quality and cause damage to property, crops, resources, wildlife, and human lives. Since models predict that the number of wildfires will rise by 50% by 2100 the reduction of the wildfire risk is more crucial than ever. We herewith attempt to develop a simple model for nowcasting such catastrophic events that may be useful for preparing authorities and policymakers. As an example, the case of the USA is presented by analyzing the count of wildfires and acres burned there over the past four decades to forecast such catastrophic events over the next ten years. The approach employed in this research can serve as an additional resource in the field of environment and fire ecology, aiding in identifying fire-adapted ecosystems and fire patterns.</p>