A New Method of Change Point Detection Using Variable Fuzzy Sets Under Environmental Change

Abstract

Change point detection is an effective tool to identity whether the hydrological data are of consistency. In this paper, Pettitt test was first used to detect change point for annual rainfall and runoff time series in 6 selected sub-watersheds of Luanhe river basin in Northeast part of China. Then we presented a method to detect change point according to the law of mutual change of quality and quantity in variable fuzzy sets. We chose the mean of time series as assessment index as in other change point detection methods, and defined 95 and 5 % quantiles of the time series as the supremum and infimum respectively. We selected a reference period (for example, the first 10 points of the time series) as the stationary period, and after the reference period, we checked the mean value of the time series point by point. We used this method in the 6 sub-watersheds of Luanhe river basin. The results of the 2 methods showed that most annual rainfall time series had no change point, and some annual runoff time series had change point in 1979 or 1981. Comparison of the 2 methods was made, and it indicated that Pettitt test provided reference for variable fuzzy sets method, but the latter provided more reasonable results than Pettitt test in this study. This method can also be used in other natural time series.