A new method for structural safety and reliability analysis of offshore wind turbines

Abstract

With the motivation to overcome the shortcomings of the Rosenblatt inverse-first-order reliability environmental contour method (IFORM), in this study, the use of bivariate kernel density estimation with smoothed cross-validation bandwidth selection method is proposed for generating more accurate environmental contour lines. The environmental contour lines at a chosen offshore site obtained by using the proposed new method were compared with those obtained by using the Rosenblatt IFORM, and the accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed new method have been fully and clearly substantiated. Next, the 50 year extreme structural dynamic responses of a monopile-supported 5 MW offshore wind turbine installed at this chosen offshore site based on the proposed new method and the Rosenblatt IFORM were calculated. Analysing the calculated results, it can be found that the 50 year extreme fore−aft shear force value based on the 50 year extreme sea state obtained using the proposed new method is 78.9% larger than the corresponding value obtained based on the Rosenblatt IFORM. The calculation results in this paper were further systematically analysed and compared, and the necessity and importance of using more realistic environmental contour lines (such as those generated using the proposed new method) have been finally highlighted.