A new method for modelling flow duration curves and predicting streamflow regimes under altered land-use conditions / Une nouvelle méthode de modélisation des courbes de débits classés et de prévision des régimes d'écoulement sous conditions modifiées d'occupation du sol

Abstract

The impact of changes in land-use/cover on streamflow at short time scales is evaluated by examining the changes in the flow duration curve (FDC) before and after land-use/cover change. The FDC characterizes the relationship between the magnitude and frequency and hence provides the complete range of streamflow over time. Two issues need to be considered in predicting the FDC due to land-use changes: (a) the appropriate parametric form of the FDC that enables application of the same expression of FDCs before and after the changes; and (b) the ability of parameters to capture and characterize the effect of land-use changes. In this paper, we propose a model which is a four-parameter double power form as a function of the FDC, where the two hydrological parameters represent the mean annual flow ([Qbar]) and the cease-to-flow point (τ expressed as a percentage), while the other two parameters (α and β) determine the shape of the FDC. The properties of this function are investigated in order to assign parameters to cope with the land-use changes. The model is used for several typical catchments in Australia for demonstration.