A new method for determining threshold in using PGCEVD to calculate return values of typhoon wave height

Abstract

In using the PGCEVD (Poisson-Gumbel Compound Extreme Value Distribution) model to calculate return values of typhoon wave height, the quantitative selection of the threshold has blocked its application. By analyzing the principle of the threshold selection of PGCEVD model and in combination of the change point statistical methods, this paper proposes a new method for quantitative calculation of the threshold in PGCEVD model. Eleven samples from five engineering points in several coastal waters of Guangdong and Hainan, China, are calculated and analyzed by using PGCEVD model and the traditional Pearson type III distribution (P-III) model, respectively. By comparing the results of the two models, it is shown that the new method of selecting the optimal threshold is feasible. PGCEVD model has more stable results than that of P-III model and can be used for the return wave height in every direction.