A new Markov model for base-loaded units for use in production costing

Abstract

A Markov model for base-loaded units, called the LLM (load linked Markov) model, for use in a probabilistic production costing algorithm is described. This LLM model recognizes the relationship between the need for operating a base-loaded unit and the system load cycle. A comparison of the results obtained by using a traditional production costing method, the OPCOST method with explicit consideration of unit duty cycle effects, and the new method using the LLM model for base-loaded units, called the PROCOP method, shows significant differences in the energies produced by the base-loaded units and consequently the other units. The linkage of a base-loaded unit's need for operation to the load cycle avoids the assumption of the traditional model that the base-loaded units are equally needed all times. It also avoids the ad hoc treatment of outage postponability of base-loaded units. Hence, the PROCOP method is more physically based and is likely to be more accurately responsive to change in the load cycle and other system parameters. >