A new look at the statistical assessment of approximate and rigorous methods for the estimation of stabilized formation temperatures in geothermal and petroleum wells

Abstract

Approximate and rigorous solutions of seven heat transfer models were statistically examined, for the first time, to estimate stabilized formation temperatures (SFT) of geothermal and petroleum boreholes. Constant linear and cylindrical heat source models were used to describe the heat flow (either conductive or conductive/convective) involved during a borehole drilling. A comprehensive statistical assessment of the major error sources associated with the use of these models was carried out. The mathematical methods (based on approximate and rigorous solutions of heat transfer models) were thoroughly examined by using four statistical analyses: (i) the use of linear and quadratic regression models to infer the SFT; (ii) the application of statistical tests of linearity to evaluate the actual relationship between bottom-hole temperatures and time function data for each selected method; (iii) the comparative analysis of SFT estimates between the approximate and rigorous predictions of each analytical method using a β ratio parameter to evaluate the similarity of both solutions, and (iv) the evaluation of accuracy in each method using statistical tests of significance, and deviation percentages between ‘true’ formation temperatures and SFT estimates (predicted from approximate and rigorous solutions). The present study also enabled us to determine the sensitivity parameters that should be considered for a reliable calculation of SFT, as well as to define the main physical and mathematical constraints where the approximate and rigorous methods could provide consistent SFT estimates.