Abstract

In linear regression, a residual measures how far a subject's observation is from expectation; in survival analysis, a subject's Martingale or deviance residual is sometimes interpreted similarly. Here we consider ways in which a linear regression-like interpretation is not appropriate for Martingale and deviance residuals, and we develop a novel time-to-event residual which does have a linear regression-like interpretation. We illustrate the utility of this new residual via simulation of a time-to-event genome-wide association study, motivated by a real study seeking genetic modifiers of Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy. By virtue of its linear regression-like characteristics, our new residual may prove useful in other contexts as well.

Highlights

  • In this paper we develop a new form of survival analysis residual with linear regression-like (LRL) properties, in a sense to be made clear in what follows

  • In this paper we argue that Martingale residual (MR) and deviance residual (DR) do not lend themselves to an LRL interpretation, but that we can modify DR to do so

  • We introduce a new form of residual, which we call an ordinary time-to-event (OTE) residual, so called because it affords an ordinary LRL interpretation in the context of time-to-event data (TE), and we compare OTE with MR, DR and with an ordinary linear regression residual (OLRR)

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Summary

Introduction

In this paper we develop a new form of survival analysis residual with linear regression-like (LRL) properties, in a sense to be made clear in what follows. The simplest way to motivate this work is by describing a target application: discovery of genes that modify the Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) phenotype. DMD involves progressive muscle tissue loss with replacement by fat and fibrotic tissue, and is currently without a cure. Patients typically become reliant on wheelchairs by early to mid-adolescence, but some maintain ambulation substantially longer, and age at loss of ambulation (LOA) is an important clinical indicator of disease progression. A great deal is known about the gene (DMD) that causes DMD, including the fact that modifier genes influence the rate of disease progression in a DMD mouse model [3, 4]; evidence for modifiers exists in humans as well [5,6,7,8]. The discovery of modifier genes in humans has implications both for therapeutics and for the design of DMD clinical trials

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