A new investor sentiment indicator (ISI) based on artificial intelligence: A powerful return predictor in China

Abstract

This paper utilizes deep learning approach widely documented in artificial intelligence, and proposes an investor-sentiment indicator (ISI) that is consistent with the purpose of forecasting stock market returns. We find that ISI is positively correlated with future stock market returns at a monthly frequency, but negatively associated with subsequent returns over a longer horizon. Moreover, ISI outperforms other well-recognized predictors both in and out of sample, and can predict cross-sectional stock returns sorted by industry. We also show a positive association between monthly ISI and dividend growth rate, which indicates that investors’ expectations about future cash flows may contribute to the return predictability of ISI.