A new index integrating forestry and ecology models for quantitatively characterizing forest carbon sequestration potential ability in a subtropical region

Abstract

Due to the important role of forests in carbon neutrality, it is a big task in accurately calculating and predicting forest carbon storage and carbon sink capacity in recent years. However, considering the factors on the capacity of forest carbon sequestration, ecologists and foresters consider different models to evaluate the forest carbon sink ability at different scales, with foresters focusing more on forest growth models, while ecologists adding more climate and environmental factors, which may result in inconsistent results in carbon storage. Therefore, constructing an integrated model by combining the forestry and ecology models is essential for accurately quantifying and characterizing the forest carbon sink potential at the regional scale. Here, we proposed a new forest carbon sink potential index (FCSPI), which is defined as fractional deficiency of the current forest carbon to its maximum level, based on forest permanent plots, climate, and edaphic data to evaluate the forest sink potential ability from stand level to zonal scale across the northern subtropical zone in Hubei province, China, which coupled the stand growth model and climate-productivity model. The results at stand level showed that the R2 and RMSE of FCSPI were 0.78 and 0.072 respectively, which indicated that the FCSPI is an intuitive, highly practical, straightforward, easy, and rapid to implement methodology for forest carbon sequestration assessment. Moreover, FCSPI can conveniently extended from stand scale to zonal scale based on the site quality index for carbon sink (SIC) and stand age variables, which were derived from the opened climate, edaphic, and topographic data. The results of wall-to-wall FCSPI across the subtropical forest in Hubei province reveal the current and future carbon potential sequestration, which can help managers to focus on forest management for climate-smart actions and planning in forest ecosystem services framework.