A new hybrid method to forecast wind turbine output power in power systems

Abstract

Wind turbine power forecasting is one of the most challenging and tedious issues in the power engineering field. In this way, we suggest a probabilistic method based on a sufficient optimization tool to construct optimal prediction intervals PIs. Here we use combined lower upper bound method to capture the uncertainty of forecasting. In order to find the optimal PIs, a suitable multi-objective approach is employed to satisfy both PI coverage probability and PI width equally. According to the high complexity and nonlinearity of the problem, a new optimization algorithm called modified firefly algorithm MFA is employed to find the optimal PIs. The proposed modification method makes use of levy flight operator and crossover operations to increase the diversity of the fireflies in the population. In order to see the satisfying performance of the proposed method, the practical dataset of the Wind Farm located near Cape Jervis on the Fleurieu Peninsula in Australia is used as the case study.