A New Hybrid Grey Neural Network Based on Grey Verhulst Model and BP Neural Network for Time Series Forecasting

Abstract

The advantages and disadvantages of BP neural network and grey Verhulst model for time series prediction are analyzed respectively, this article proposes a new time series forecasting model for the time series growth in S-type or growth being saturated. From the data fitting's viewpoint, the new model named grey Verhulst neural network is established based on grey Verhulst model and BP neural network. Firstly, the Verhulst model is mapped to a BP neural network, the corresponding relationships between grey Verhulst model parameters and BP network weights is established. Then, the BP neural network is trained by means of BP algorithm, when the BP network convergences, the optimized weights can be extracted, and the optimized grey Verhulst neural network model can be obtained. The experiment results show that the new model is effective with the advantages of high precision, less samples required and simple calculation, which makes full use of the similarities and complementarities between grey system model and BP neural network to settle the disadvantage of applying grey model and neural network separately. It is concluded that grey Verhulst neural network is a feasible and effective modeling method for the time series increasing in the curve with S-type.