Abstract
This paper develops a new grey prediction model with quadratic polynomial term. Analytical expressions of the time response function and the restored values of the new model are derived by using grey model technique and mathematical tools. With observations of the confirmed cases, the death cases and the recovered cases from COVID-19 in China at the early stage, the proposed forecasting model is developed. The computational results demonstrate that the new model has higher precision than the other existing prediction models, which show the grey model has high accuracy in the forecasting of COVID-19.
Highlights
This paper develops a new grey prediction model with quadratic polynomial term
It can be seen that the neural network models and statistical prediction models are widely used to study the COVID-19, and the grey prediction model is relatively few
(4) The new model is used to study the confirmed cases, the death cases and the recovered cases of COVID-19 in China at the early stage, and results illustrate that the new model has higher precision than other forecasting models
Summary
This paper develops a new grey prediction model with quadratic polynomial term. Analytical expressions of the time response function and the restored values of the new model are derived by using grey model technique and mathematical tools. The grey forecasting model is chose to study the confirmed cases, the death cases and the recovered cases of COVID-19 in China at the early stage. The new model is applied to study the confirmed cases, the death cases and the recovered cases from COVID-19 in China at the early stage.
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