Abstract
The paper proposes a new visualization scheme for the registry of Covid-19 cases by calculating the mantissa of the registered ones, so there is no need of performing complicated mathematical calculations. As an example, six countries are randomly selected: Australia, Brazil, China, Colombia, Portugal and Venezuela. The results show that China is the only country that keeps the epidemic under control, while Australia begins a new outbreak after having previously controlled the epidemic. Colombia and Portugal show a very similar behavior of registered cases and, finally, we can see that Venezuela, Brazil, Portugal, and Colombia present a growth of cases that may trigger new outbreaks in the future. Results are obtained from data registered at Johns Hopkins University until July 18th, 2020.
Highlights
The World Health Organization declared a new pandemic due to Covid-19 on March 11th, 2020, and until July 25th, 2020, there have been more than 13 million infections in the world with more than six hundred thousand deaths according to the daily records made by the Johns Hopkins University
The advantage of using the mantissa calculation is that it is more sensitive to changes in recorded cases as opposed to a linear or logarithmic scale, since the results show how severe an epidemic outbreak can be depending on the shape of the peak of the graph instead of using a linear or logarithmic scale
We show that Australia begins to show a progressive growth of cases due to Covid-19 after managing to control the epidemic, where three epidemic rebounds, i.e. number of peaks depicted in the graph, are observed after the start of the cases registered in that country
Summary
The World Health Organization declared a new pandemic due to Covid-19 on March 11th, 2020, and until July 25th, 2020, there have been more than 13 million infections in the world with more than six hundred thousand deaths according to the daily records made by the Johns Hopkins University. As can be seen in the scientific literature, multiple mathematical models are being carried out to monitor the Covid-19 epidemic [1,2,3,4], but they must be recalculated on a daily basis. For this reason, a simple mathematical operation is proposed to determine whether or not the epidemic is being overcome, and to visualize how severe the epidemic is in real time
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