Abstract
Istanbul is a mega city with various coastal utilities located on the northern coast of the Sea of Marmara. At Yenikapi, there are critical vulnerable coastal utilities, structures, and active metropolitan life. Fishery ports, commercial ports, small craft harbors, passenger terminals of intercity maritime transportation, waterfront commercial and/or recreational structures with residential/commercial areas and public utility areas are some examples of coastal utilization that are vulnerable to marine disasters. Therefore, the tsunami risk in the Yenikapi region is an important issue for Istanbul. In this study, a new methodology for tsunami vulnerability assessment for areas susceptible to tsunami is proposed, in which the Yenikapi region is chosen as a case study. Available datasets from the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality and Turkish Navy are used as inputs for high-resolution GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) evaluation of tsunami risk in Yenikapi. Bathymetry and topography database is used for high-resolution tsunami numerical modeling where the tsunami hazard, in terms of coastal inundation, is deterministically computed using the NAMI DANCE numerical code, considering earthquake worst case scenarios. In order to define the tsunami human vulnerability of the region, two different aspects, vulnerability at location and evacuation resilience maps were created using the analytical hierarchical process (AHP) method of MCDA. A vulnerability at location map is composed of metropolitan use, geology, elevation, and distance from shoreline layers, whereas an evacuation resilience map is formed by slope, distance within flat areas, distance to buildings, and distance to road networks layers. The tsunami risk map is then computed by the proposed new relationship which uses flow depth maps, vulnerability at location maps, and evacuation resilience maps.
Highlights
Tsunamis are the giant waves mostly triggered by earthquakes and/or submarine landslides
The aim of this study is to further develop existing approaches, yielding a new methodology for Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based tsunami risk analysis, and thereby (i) to use high resolution (1 m) GIS-based data in tsunami numerical modeling and inundation analysis, (ii) propose a new human vulnerability assessment method by further improving known vulnerability assessment aspects and introducing new resilience assessment features, and (iii) propose a further developed tsunami risk evaluation equation by integrating the result of meter-size gridded high-resolution tsunami numerical models of different scenarios in the Yenikapı region in Istanbul, in order to obtain human vulnerability assessments
Tsunami risk analysis This study presents a new approach for tsunami risk evaluation regarding the association of vulnerability at location, evacuation resilience, and numerical computation of tsunami inundation depth result
Summary
Tsunamis are the giant waves mostly triggered by earthquakes and/or submarine landslides. Tsunami risk analysis This study presents a new approach for tsunami risk evaluation regarding the association of vulnerability at location, evacuation resilience, and numerical computation of tsunami inundation depth result. Where H is the hazard value (maximum flow depth in inundation zone during tsunami), and VL and RE are the vulnerability at location and the evacuation resilience, respectively.
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