A new fully probabilistic methodology and a software for assessing uncertainties and managing risks in shale gas projects at any maturity stage

Abstract

Shale oil and shale gas projects generally have marginal economics, hence should be carefully analyzed from the economic standpoint. Generating an economically recoverable resource (ERR) probability function that shows the full uncertainty range is highly important for such an economic analysis. Furthermore, the net present value (NPV) of the project together with the uncertainties inherent in it should be revealed so that the primary decision of entering a shale oil or shale gas project will be determined. As progressing through the project phases, judicious go/no-go decisions should be given at several decision gates.In this study, a methodology to evaluate shale gas projects at any project maturity stage via a fully probabilistic approach is developed. Moreover, a new user-friendly software with graphical user interface is developed to make our methodology applicable.Considering the available input parameters at each of the three different project phases; exploration, appraisal and development phases, specific probabilistic reserves estimation methodologies are designed to reveal the effect of uncertainties in input parameters on the ERR probability ranges. Moreover, by utilizing the economical parameters such as market prices, tax rates and various expenditures, NPV probability ranges and hence firm go/no-go decisions at the decision gates can be attained. The main objective is to develop a methodology to obtain firm decisions at any project stage while considering the uncertainties in the input parameters and to evaluate the risks in the monetary level. In order to verify the developed methodology, the publicly available data for the Eagle Ford field has been used during the explanation of the procedure stages.