A New Frontier Science of Economics: Global Model Simulation

Abstract

The 21st century seems likely an age of globalization, technology innovation and human awakens on cosmic mind. It is expected that syndromes or global disparities will be appeared in the human society. The global issues seem likely to confront with every country around the world co-existing on the planet Earth in a Solar system of a Galaxy in the Cosmos. As a matter of fact, national/regional economic development policy in the globalizing world should be modified in accordance with such historical trends toward ever changing sustainable global economy. The appearance of complex and interrelated global issues such as economic development, environment, energy, peace and security, human rights and displaced persons, and so on, has posed problems whose solution is quite impossible within the traditional frameworks of economics. It is worth noting that such historical trend toward fusion of science and technology should bring about integrated multidisciplinary systems analysis beyond the traditional framework of academic disciplines. The FUGI (Futures of Global Interdependence) global modeling system originally designed by Akira Onishi (who has an intellectual property right) has been developed as a scientific policy modeling and simulation tool of providing global information to the human society and finding out possibilities of policy coordination among countries in order to achieve sustainable development of the global economy under the constraints of rapidly changing global environment. The FUGI global model M200 classifies the world into 200 countries/regions where each national/regional model is globally interdependent through international trade, oil prices, export/import prices, financial flows, ODA, private foreign direct investment, exchange rates, stock market prices and global policy coordination etc. As a major core of the model, economic development, each national/regional model consists of integrated nine major sub-systems: (I) population, (II) foods, (III) energy, (IV) environment, (V) economic development, (VI) peace and security, (VII) human rights, (VIII) health care and (IX) digital divide. At a first glance, human brain could not perceive cause and effect relationships of such dynamic complex system so that we might largely depend upon advanced computer simulation technology. The UNCTAD Secretariat has officially adopted the FUGI global model project since 2000. The purpose of this paper is twofold, namely to introduce information on Futures of Global Interdependence (FUGI) modeling system but also provide with alternative futures of sustainable development of the interdependent global economy under the constraints of energy requirement and CO2 emissions up to 2020. It is worth noting that not only appropriate strategy for sustainable development but wise cosmic mind to promote human solidarity with the ever changing nature will be desirable to adjust orbit of the fluctuated global economy. On contrary to zero growth proposal in Limits to Growth, this article confirms that there is a possibility of achieving rather higher economic growth rates of the world economy by enhancement of technology innovations to induce a large scale environment protection investment through national and global co-ordination of policies. For business community, it is worth noting that new business opportunities should be expected from technology innovations in the coming age of post oil industrial society.