A new factorial sensitivity model for analyzing the impacts of climatic factors on crop water footprint

Abstract

The impact of climate change on the crop water footprint (WF) is highly uncertain, hindering effective agricultural water use in response to climate change. This study proposes a factor sensitivity analysis method, which can screen out statistically significant climatic factors and interactions on crop WF under various uncertainties and determine water resource management measures to mitigate drought for different crops. A special case study was conducted in Heilongjiang Province, China. The results showed that (1) the annual change in crop WF showed a downward trend from 1988 to 2018. The crop WF was dominated by green water footprint (WFgreen), and the average occupancy rate of WFgreen in crops was 58.7%–74.1 %; the spatial distribution of WF has latitude zonality. (2) Drought has different effects on WF of different crops, and WF of soybean is susceptible to drought. Wind speed, sunshine hours, and humidity have a greater impact on crop WF in most growth stages. (3) The effect of climatic factors on crop WF varies in different months. The rice WF is mainly affected by the climate in May, and there is an interaction between May humidity and May rain. The WF of maize and soybeans are affected primarily by the climate in July, especially sunshine hours. The proposed approach attempts to analyze that crop WF is affected by not only an individual climatic factor but also their interactions. Crop water management practices should be adjusted based on the results to mitigate the adverse impact of climatic conditions on crop WF during different growing months.