A New Emergency-Risk-Evaluation Approach under Spherical Fuzzy-Information Environments

Abstract

When major emergencies or accidents occur, risk evaluation and prediction are the most important means to reduce their impact. Typical risk evaluation uses the failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) method for failure-risk ranking and control. However, when faced with severe special infectious diseases such as COVID-19, there are many cognitive and information uncertainties that the FMEA method is unable to effectively handle. To effectively deal with the issue of risk evaluation when major emergencies or accidents occur, this paper integrated the risk-priority number and spherical fuzzy-sets methods to propose a novel emergency-risk-evaluation method. In the numerical verification, this paper applied the example of preventing secondary COVID-19 transmissions in hospitals to explain the calculation procedure and validity of the proposed new emergency-risk-evaluation approach. The calculation results were also compared with the typical RPN, fuzzy-set, and intuitionistic fuzzy-set methods. The calculation results showed that the proposed new emergency-risk-evaluation approach could effectively handle the cognitive and informational uncertainties of emergency-risk-evaluation issues during the COVID-19 pandemic.