Abstract
Decision‐making for selecting response plans problem (SRPP) has been widely concerning to scholars. However, most of the existing studies on this problem are focused on public emergencies, and little attention has been paid to the decision‐makers’ urgent need for solving the SRPP in response to public opinion crisis (POC) that may lead to panic buying of materials derived from public emergencies. POC has obvious characteristics of group behaviors that directly resulted from panics and psychological appeals of the public. Therefore, for solving the SRPP in POC, it is necessary to consider the deep‐seated cause that result in panics and psychological appeals of the public, i.e., risk perception of the public (RPP). Firstly, the multicase study is employed to describe the SRPP of POC, and thus eight typical cases are chosen to analyze POC and its relevant response measures. Then, the RPP is described with prospect theory through considering the behavioral characteristics and critical sense of the public, the response measures of decision‐makers, and the importance and ambiguity of POC. Further, considering the behavioral characteristics of decision‐makers and the impact of alternative response plans on the evolution of POC scenarios, a new decision method for solving the SRPP with the intervention of the RPP is proposed by using cumulative prospect theory and a manner of comparing alternatives for each other. Finally, an example is given to illustrate the potential application and effectiveness of the proposed method.
Highlights
In recent years, with the frequent outbreaks of public emergencies, relevant emergency management activities have increasingly become the focus of attention of the international community, governments and scholars [1,2,3]
Considering the behavioral characteristics of decision-makers and the impact of alternative response plans on the evolution of public opinion crisis (POC) scenarios, a new decision method for solving the selecting response plans problem (SRPP) with the intervention of the risk perception of the public (RPP) is proposed by using cumulative prospect theory and a manner of comparing alternatives for each other
This paper studies how to propose a new decision method and apply it to solve the SRPP in POC that may lead to panic buying of materials from the perspective of the intervention of RPP with the consideration of behavioral characteristics of decision-makers
Summary
With the frequent outbreaks of public emergencies (e.g., the “9.11” terrorist attack, hurricane Sandy in the U.S.; the SARS, Wenchuan earthquake, milk products pollution and H1N1 flu in China; the nuclear leakage in Japan; the earthquake in Haiti), relevant emergency management activities have increasingly become the focus of attention of the international community, governments and scholars [1,2,3]. Wang et al [40] used prospect theory to describe the RPP on the arrival time of emergency materials in the study of optimal scheduling problem of emergency materials under emergencies Different from these previous studies, this paper will use prospect theory to describe the perceived value of the public on the supply of materials and deduce the change and formula of RPP after analyzing the behavioral characteristics and critical sense of the public, the response measures of decision-makers, and the importance and ambiguity of POC.
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