Abstract
In this paper, a general framework is given for risk assessment. As a case study, leakage risk in gas transmission pipelines has been considered. To estimate the risk, two main terms are defined: "severity" and "likelihood of occurrence", both of which are associated with uncertainty. By use of "fuzzy set theory", these uncertainties have been modeled. In order to estimate the risk for the whole pipeline, it is divided into a number of segments. To aggregate the calculated segment's risk values, the new combination rule is proposed. This is necessary because in cases of high conflict between the evidences source and their null intersection, this theory does not provide a sensible outcome. To remedy these problems, in this paper, a new method for data aggregation has been proposed. Simulation results indicate the better performance of the proposed method compared with the original combination rule of Dempster-Shafer theory in risk assessment.
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