A New Cold War? Cold Peace. Russia, Ukraine, and NATO...

Abstract

Compares USSR to Vladimir Putin's Russia. As many divergences as similarities between USSR and Russia. Russia and West unlikely to enter into new war, most likely will enter new era of cold peace. Russian ideology, domestically popular and internally consistent, lacks global appeal. An authoritarian democracy with weak rule of law, Russia will be increasingly isolated and unable to attract foreign investment or trade or lead its putative peripheral allies due to involuted ideology and failure to form the rule of law. U.S. did not win the war: Russia lost it. Russia could win the peace, but must instill rule of law and a truly global ideology. Putin intelligent enough to do exactly that. Proxy wars and state sponsored terrorism avoidable, but possible. NATO Member States must understand the exact challenges to react promptly and appropriately, not excessively nor inadequately.Updated: Now with more sanctions! Specifically, empirical data about the economic effects of the sanctions already in place. Although the sanction regime will not force Russia to abandon its illegal annexation of Crimea, nor lead to an ouster of President Putin the sanctions may have deterred Russia from further illegal annexation of Ukrainian territory. If they do not, they will be followed by sectoral sanctions of entire swaths of the Russian economy, and possibly also illegal countermeasures, with the aim of ruining Russia's economy, even at the risk of another global recession. Includes section on Syria.