A New Approach To Predicting Prognosis In Sars-Cov-2 Infection: "MELD Scoring"

Abstract

Background/Aims: The MELD score is a scoring system used to assess the severity of end-stage liver disease. In our study, we aimed to investigate the role of MELD score in predicting the course of the disease and mortality in COVID-19 disease with multi-systemic involvement. Methods: Our study was conducted with 96 patients over the age of 18 who were diagnosed with COVID-19 by real time PCR method by taking nasopharyngeal swabs between March 2021 and March 2022. MELD score was calculated according to the blood results of the patients at the time of hospital admission. To calculate the MELD score, the equation MELD = 11.2 x ln(international normalized ratio [INR]) + 3.78 x ln(bilirubin, mg/dL) + 9.57 x ln(creatinine, mg/dL) + 6.43 was used. Results: We found that the MELD score was significantly higher in the moderate and severe patient group compared to the mild patient group (p<0.01). When we compared the moderate and severe patient groups between themselves, the MELD score was significantly higher in the severe patient group (p<0.01). In the evaluation of the association of MELD score with mortality, a one-unit increase in MELD score was associated with a 1.26-fold (95% confidence interval: 1.10-1.44) increased mortality risk. Conclusions: In our study evaluating the MELD score in COVID-19 patients, it was observed that the MELD score during hospitalization was closely associated with disease severity and mortality. Therefore, the MELD score may be a guiding scoring system in the early follow-up of COVID-19 patients.