Abstract
Estimating the economic life of a technology is the first important prerequisite step in the feasibility analysis of technology-based business. Many empirical studies have concentrated on patents data to estimate the time period for a technology. However, it is recommended to estimate it along with qualitative considerations of future technological and market conditions. In this regard, little is known about how approaches are applied. This paper aims to establish a structural framework of estimating the lifetime of a technology by integrating the outputs of an analysis of the determinants in each transition of a product life cycle. We describe an illustrative case about a light emitting diode (LED) backlight unit (BLU) technology for the liquid crystal display (LCD) TV. The framework allows valuators and experts to estimate a technology lifetime by using multidimensional factors.
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