A new approach to detect epidemic of DHF by combining ARIMA model and adjusted Tukey's control chart with interpretation rules.

Abstract

The aim of this study was to propose a new method to detect the epidemic of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model [ARIMA(1,0,2)(0,1,2)12] with no constant and adjusted Tukey's control chart and the results obtained were interpreted using seventh interpretation rule. Data on the number of DHF cases in Chonburi reported during 2007-2013 were used. The results indicated that this new approach efficiently detected the epidemic of DHF in October 2015 with the forecasted number of DHF (257 cases) and root-mean-squared error (RMSE = 46.71).