Abstract
With an average of 26 tropical cyclones (TCs) per year, the western North Pacific (WNP) is the most active TC basin in the world. Considerable exposure lies in the coastal regions of the WNP, which extends from Japan in the north to the Philippines in the south, amplifying TC related impacts, including loss of life and damage to property, infrastructure and environment. This study presents a new location-specific typhoon (TY) and super typhoon (STY) outlook for the WNP basin and subregions, including China, Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. Using multivariate Poisson regression and considering up to five modes of ocean-atmospheric variability and teleconnection patterns that influence WNP TC behaviour, thousands of possible predictor model combinations are compared using an automated variable selection procedure. For each location, skillful TY and STY outlooks are generated up to 6 months before the start of the typhoon season, with rolling monthly updates enabling refinement of predicted TY and STY frequency. This unparalleled lead time allows end-users to make more informed decisions before and during the typhoon season.
Highlights
With an average of 26 tropical cyclones (TCs) per year, the western North Pacific (WNP) is the most active TC basin in the world
The subjective nature used to define the TY season across the WNP and the geographical spread of countries considered in this analysis means that TY seasons can differ between agencies
While TCs can occur in any month of the year, the defined TY seasons using the described methodology account for between 78% (Philippines) and 99% (Korea) of Tropical storm/depression (TSTD) events, between 88% (Philippines) and 100% (Korea) of TY events and between 86% (WNP) and 100% (Korea) of super typhoon (STY) events
Summary
With an average of 26 tropical cyclones (TCs) per year, the western North Pacific (WNP) is the most active TC basin in the world. We apply a statistical modelling framework (multivariate Poisson regression) to generate location-specific TY (maximum 10-minute sustained winds ≥ 64 kt and < 114 kt) and STY (maximum 10-minute sustained winds ≥ 114 kt) outlooks for the WNP, China, Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam.
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