A New Approach for Exergoeconomics Evaluation by Considering Uncertainty with Monte Carlo Method

Abstract

The exergoeconomics analysis combines thermodynamic assessments based on exergy analysis with economic concepts. this article suggests a new method for exergoeconomics analysis and evaluation of energy systems by considering uncertainty in economic parameters. As the first step, the future values of economic parameters that influence the operating cost of the energy system are forecasted by the Monte Carlo Method. Then, as a novel approach, principles of exergoeconomics analysis method are coupled with the Monte Carlo Method for exergoeconomics evaluation of energy systems. Also, three new parameters, i.e. Risk Factor (RF), Risk Factor Sensitivity (RFS), and Product Cost Sensitivity (PCS), are proposed. Two different approaches are considered in the evaluation process to improve the system: a) decreasing the total cost of products and b) reducing the risk of the cost of products. Also, the proposed method is applied to the CGAM system as a benchmark. Eventually, the results of the first and second approaches show that the total cost of products can be reduced 4.1% (from 22.270 $/GJ to 21.358 $/GJ) and also the risk of the cost of the products can be reduced 5.8% (from 25.8% to 24.3%).