A New Approach for Assessing Heat Balance State along a Water Transfer Channel during Winter Periods

Abstract

Ice problems in channels for water transfer in cold regions seriously affect the capacity and efficiency of water conveyance. Sometimes, ice problems such as ice jams in water transfer channels create risk during winter periods. Recently, water temperature and environmental factors at various cross-sections along the main channel of the middle route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in China have been measured. Based on these temperature data, the heat balance state of this water transfer channel has been investigated. A principal component analysis (PCA) method has been used to analyze the complex factors influencing the observed variations of the water temperature, by reducing eigenvector dimension and then extracting the principal component as the input feature. Based on the support vector machine (SVM) theory, a new approach for judging the heat loss or heat gain of flowing water in a channel during winter periods has been developed. The Gaussian radial basis is used as the kernel function in this new approach. Then, parameters have been optimized by means of various methods. Through the supervised machine learning process toward the observed water temperature data, it is found that the air–water temperature difference and thermal conditions are the key factors affecting the heat loss or heat absorption of water body. Results using the proposed method agree well with those of measurements. The changes of water temperature are well predicted using the proposed method together with the state of water heat balance.